AEK Arena · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.83 for Omonia Nicosia, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Omonia Nicosia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Omonia Nicosia win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Larnaca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Omonia Nicosia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 23% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.83 for Omonia Nicosia, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
AEK Larnaca
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 4-1 (W)
Omonia Nicosia
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-1 Omonia Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2026-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-2 Omonia Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2026-01-14T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-2 Omonia Nicosia (Cup)
- 2025-12-15T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-1 Omonia Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2025-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-1 Omonia Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2025-05-07T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 2-1 Omonia Nicosia (Cup)
- 2025-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-0 Omonia Nicosia (Cup)
- 2025-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-1 Omonia Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2025-03-16T18:30:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-1 Omonia Nicosia (1. Division)
- 2025-01-03T17:30:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-3 Omonia Nicosia (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Omonia Nicosia win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.