AEK Arena · Referee Menelaos Antoniou, Cyprus · Analysis updated 16:53 UTC
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.02 for Pafos, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives AEK Larnaca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.0% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEK Larnaca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pafos away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
AEK Larnaca
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 0-1 (L)
Pafos
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Anorthosis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-1 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 2-2 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-1 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2026-01-25T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 2-1 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2025-10-30T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-1 Pafos (Super Cup)
- 2025-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 2-4 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2025-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-0 Pafos (Cup)
- 2025-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 0-2 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2025-04-13T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 2-2 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2024-12-22T16:00:00.000Z · AEK Larnaca 1-0 Pafos (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.