Alphamega Stadium · Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
AEL vs Iraklis Yerolakkou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for AEL and 1.07 for Iraklis Yerolakkou, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives AEL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AEL win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AEL home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Iraklis Yerolakkou away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AEL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for AEL and 1.07 for Iraklis Yerolakkou, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
AEL
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 2-0 (W)
Iraklis Yerolakkou
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ASIL Lysi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayia Napa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Halkanoras · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halkanoras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs APEA · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEL win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.