Elbasan Arena · Referee I. Orlic · Analysis updated 11:34 UTC
AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for AF Elbasani and 0.99 for Bate Borisov, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives AF Elbasani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AF Elbasani win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AF Elbasani home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bate Borisov away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AF Elbasani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for AF Elbasani and 0.99 for Bate Borisov, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
AF Elbasani
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 1-1 (D)
Bate Borisov
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Brest · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 0-0 Bate Borisov (UEFA Europa Conference League)
- 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-1 Bate Borisov (UEFA Europa Conference League)
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AF Elbasani win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.