Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 09:16 UTC
AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for AF Elbasani and 1.43 for Dinamo Tirana, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Dinamo Tirana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AF Elbasani home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Tirana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
AF Elbasani
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
Dinamo Tirana
- 2026-10-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Laci · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-2 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2026-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 3-0 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-4 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2026-01-25T15:30:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 2-0 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-11-22T18:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-1 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-0 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-03-16T17:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-1 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-01-19T18:30:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-3 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2024-11-04T17:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 0-5 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2024-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-2 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.