Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 20:25 UTC
AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for AF Elbasani and 1.00 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives AF Elbasani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AF Elbasani home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AF Elbasani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for AF Elbasani and 1.00 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–013.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 60.0% vs market 45.9%, edge +14.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.9% | 60.0% | 1.67 | +14.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 34.5% | 34.6% | 2.89 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.60 | 34.5% | 34.6% | 2.89 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.4% | 65.5% | 1.53 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.4% | 65.5% | 1.53 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 69.2% | 1.45 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.0% | 30.9% | 3.24 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 40.0% | 2.50 | -14.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AF Elbasani
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.