Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
AF Elbasani vs Laci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for AF Elbasani and 1.33 for Laci, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives AF Elbasani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AF Elbasani home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Laci away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
AF Elbasani
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 1-1 (D)
Laci
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Këlcyra · 8-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-1 Laci (Superliga)
- 2025-03-26T14:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-0 Laci (Superliga)
- 2025-01-26T16:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-2 Laci (Superliga)
- 2024-11-10T13:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-1 Laci (Superliga)
- 2024-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · AF Elbasani 1-0 Laci (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.