Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkodër Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for AF Elbasani and 1.09 for Vllaznia Shkodër, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives AF Elbasani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AF Elbasani win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AF Elbasani home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AF Elbasani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for AF Elbasani and 1.09 for Vllaznia Shkodër, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
AF Elbasani
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 1-1 (D)
Vllaznia Shkodër
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AF Elbasani · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 6 | AF Elbasani | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Laci | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Partizani | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AF Elbasani win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.