Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
AF Elbasani vs Vora Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for AF Elbasani and 0.83 for Vora, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives AF Elbasani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AF Elbasani win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AF Elbasani home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vora away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AF Elbasani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 24% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for AF Elbasani and 0.83 for Vora, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 2–011.6%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
AF Elbasani
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 1-1 (D)
Vora
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AF Elbasani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Korabi Peshkopi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | AF Elbasani | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Laci | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Vora | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | Partizani | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 10 | Skenderbeu Korce | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AF Elbasani win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.