· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
AFAD vs Bouaké Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for AFAD and 0.80 for Bouaké, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives AFAD the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFAD home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bouaké away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 33% / 35% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for AFAD and 0.80 for Bouaké, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.7%
- 1–016.2%
- 0–115.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
AFAD
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs East End Lions · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs East End Lions · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SOL · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympique Sport d'Abobo · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SOA · 3-2 (W)
Bouaké
- 2026-10-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ISCA · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs AFAD · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SOA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Stella · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs US Tchologo · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yamoussoukro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | SOA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Zoman | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | San-Pédro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | SOL | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | ES Agboville | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | ISCA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Bouaké | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Stade d'Abidjan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Korhogo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | AFAD | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 12 | Stella | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | ASEC Mimosas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | US Tchologo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Mouna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Adiake | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.