Sportpark Goed Genoeg · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
AFC Amsterdam vs De Treffers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for AFC Amsterdam and 2.20 for De Treffers, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives De Treffers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
De Treffers win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Amsterdam home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
De Treffers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates De Treffers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 23% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for AFC Amsterdam and 2.20 for De Treffers, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–27.0%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.3%
Recent form
AFC Amsterdam
- 2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Almere City II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Barendrecht · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 0-1 (L)
De Treffers
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Barendrecht · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hoek · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spakenburg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | De Treffers | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Ijsselmeervogels | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Kozakken Boys | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | HHC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Barendrecht | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | GVVV Veenendaal | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | RKAV Volendam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Katwijk | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Almere City II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | AFC Amsterdam | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | Hoek | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Koninklijke HFC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Kloetinge | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -24 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is De Treffers win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.