Sportpark Goed Genoeg · Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
AFC Amsterdam vs Kloetinge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for AFC Amsterdam and 1.12 for Kloetinge, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives AFC Amsterdam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Amsterdam home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kloetinge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Amsterdam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for AFC Amsterdam and 1.12 for Kloetinge, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 49.6% vs market 40.8%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 40.8% | 49.6% | 2.02 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.0% | 57.2% | 1.75 | +2.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.4% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.7% | 26.7% | 3.75 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.0% | 42.8% | 2.34 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.3% | 69.5% | 1.44 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.8% | 73.3% | 1.36 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 50.4% | 1.98 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AFC Amsterdam
- 2026-08-22T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Kloetinge · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 3-2 (W)
Kloetinge
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rijnsburgse Boys · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Achilles Veen · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs RKAV Volendam · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | Kozakken Boys | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Ijsselmeervogels | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | HHC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Barendrecht | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | AFC Amsterdam | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Spakenburg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | GVVV Veenendaal | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | RKAV Volendam | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Katwijk | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Almere City II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 10 |
| 14 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Hoek | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Kloetinge | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Koninklijke HFC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.