· Analysis updated 08:48 UTC
AFC Bournemouth U21 vs Plymouth U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for AFC Bournemouth U21 and 1.75 for Plymouth U21, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives AFC Bournemouth U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Bournemouth U21 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Bournemouth U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for AFC Bournemouth U21 and 1.75 for Plymouth U21, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
AFC Bournemouth U21
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-4 (L)
Plymouth U21
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.