· Analysis updated 12:13 UTC
AFC Bournemouth U21 vs West Bromwich Albion U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for AFC Bournemouth U21 and 1.78 for West Bromwich Albion U21, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives AFC Bournemouth U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AFC Bournemouth U21 win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Bournemouth U21 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
West Bromwich Albion U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Bournemouth U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 20% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for AFC Bournemouth U21 and 1.78 for West Bromwich Albion U21, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–26.2%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
AFC Bournemouth U21
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-4 (L)
West Bromwich Albion U21
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby County U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bromley U21 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds United U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley U21 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AFC Bournemouth U21 win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.