AFC Eskilstuna vs Hammarby Talang Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 2.15 for Hammarby Talang, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Hammarby Talang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hammarby Talang win

63.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 2.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AFC Eskilstuna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hammarby Talang away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

AFC Eskilstuna win17%

Draw20%

Hammarby Talang win64%

Double chance 1X

36%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

0–29.9%
1–29.9%
0–19.2%
1–19.2%
0–37.1%

Recent form

AFC Eskilstuna

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockholm Internazionale · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FBK Karlstad · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gefle IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 5-2 (W)

Hammarby Talang

2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enköping · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stocksund · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 Hammarby Talang (Ettan - Norra)
2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 Hammarby Talang (Ettan - Norra)
2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · AFC Eskilstuna 3-1 Hammarby Talang (Ettan - Norra)
2025-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Hammarby Talang (Ettan - Norra)
2024-08-04T17:00:00.000Z · AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 Hammarby Talang (Ettan - Norra)
2024-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Hammarby Talang (Ettan - Norra)

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stockholm Internazionale	28	20	4	4	45	64
2	AFC Eskilstuna	28	16	5	7	17	53
3	Arlanda	28	15	6	7	15	51
4	Enköping	28	16	3	9	3	51
5	Hammarby Talang	28	14	7	7	26	49
6	FBK Karlstad	28	13	7	8	6	46
7	IF Karlstad	28	12	8	8	11	44
8	Umeå FC	28	11	6	11	-4	39
9	Assyriska FF	28	10	5	13	-5	35
10	Gefle IF	28	10	5	13	-13	35
11	Karlberg	28	9	7	12	-10	34
12	Sollentuna	28	7	10	11	-7	31
13	Vasalund	28	7	7	14	-22	28
14	Piteå	28	5	9	14	-18	24
15	Järfälla	28	6	5	17	-21	23
16	Stocksund	28	3	6	19	-23	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hammarby Talang win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.