Hornchurch Stadium · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
AFC Hornchurch vs Eastleigh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for AFC Hornchurch and 0.95 for Eastleigh, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives AFC Hornchurch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AFC Hornchurch win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Hornchurch home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eastleigh away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Hornchurch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for AFC Hornchurch and 0.95 for Eastleigh, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
AFC Hornchurch
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastleigh · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 2-1 (W)
Eastleigh
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Hornchurch · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Woking · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Southend · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlisle · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AFC Hornchurch win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.