Hornchurch Stadium · Analysis updated 07:16 UTC
AFC Hornchurch vs Scunthorpe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for AFC Hornchurch and 1.23 for Scunthorpe, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives AFC Hornchurch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AFC Hornchurch win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Hornchurch home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Scunthorpe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Hornchurch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for AFC Hornchurch and 1.23 for Scunthorpe, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.5%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
AFC Hornchurch
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastleigh · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 2-1 (W)
Scunthorpe
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartlepool · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AFC Hornchurch · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Boreham Wood · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Utd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AFC Hornchurch win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.