AFC Hornchurch vs Tamworth Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for AFC Hornchurch and 1.43 for Tamworth, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives AFC Hornchurch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

AFC Hornchurch win

48.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AFC Hornchurch home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tamworth away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Hornchurch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for AFC Hornchurch and 1.43 for Tamworth, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AFC Hornchurch win48%

Draw22%

Tamworth win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–19.2%
1–27.0%
1–06.9%
2–26.6%

Recent form

AFC Hornchurch

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastleigh · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 2-1 (W)

Tamworth

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldershot Town · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Wealdstone · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough U21 · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	14	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	12	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	10	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	7	4	3	16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	6	3	5	7	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	-5	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	5	5	4	2	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	5	3	6	1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	-6	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	-3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	-6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	-6	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	-9	14
21	Boston United	14	3	3	8	-10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	-7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	-23	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AFC Hornchurch win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.