Hillgrounds Leisure · Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
AFC Kempston Rovers vs Brightlingsea Regent Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for AFC Kempston Rovers and 2.02 for Brightlingsea Regent, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Brightlingsea Regent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brightlingsea Regent win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Kempston Rovers home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brightlingsea Regent away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brightlingsea Regent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for AFC Kempston Rovers and 2.02 for Brightlingsea Regent, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.8%
Recent form
AFC Kempston Rovers
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arlesey Town · 1-5 (L)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brightlingsea Regent · 2-4 (L)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hadley · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stotfold · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kings Langley · 2-6 (L)
Brightlingsea Regent
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ware · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aveley · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lowestoft Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Takeley · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brightlingsea Regent win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.