· Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
AFC Leopards vs Bidco United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for AFC Leopards and 0.65 for Bidco United, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives AFC Leopards the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AFC Leopards win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bidco United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Leopards to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 29% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for AFC Leopards and 0.65 for Bidco United, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–012.0%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
AFC Leopards
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kenya Police · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidco United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs APS Bomet · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Homeboyz · 2-1 (W)
Bidco United
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Leopards · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Murang'a SEAL · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shabana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tusker · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 1-2 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
- 2025-12-23T12:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 1-0 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
- 2025-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 3-1 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
- 2024-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 1-0 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
- 2024-05-19T12:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 0-1 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
- 2023-12-10T12:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 1-2 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
- 2023-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 1-1 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
- 2023-01-08T12:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 1-4 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
- 2022-02-06T12:00:00.000Z · AFC Leopards 1-1 Bidco United (FKF Premier League)
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AFC Leopards win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.