· Analysis updated 00:14 UTC
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for AFC Leopards and 0.65 for Mombasa Elite, a combined total of 1.91. That distribution gives AFC Leopards the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AFC Leopards win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Leopards to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 30% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for AFC Leopards and 0.65 for Mombasa Elite, a combined 1.91 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 51% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.6%
- 0–014.7%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–19.7%
Recent form
AFC Leopards
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kenya Police · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidco United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs APS Bomet · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Homeboyz · 2-1 (W)
Mombasa Elite
- 2026-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naivas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AFC Leopards win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.