· Analysis updated 22:20 UTC
AFC Portchester vs Portland United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for AFC Portchester and 1.10 for Portland United, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives AFC Portchester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AFC Portchester win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Portchester home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portland United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Portchester to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for AFC Portchester and 1.10 for Portland United, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
AFC Portchester
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Whitstable Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kingstonian · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 0-2 (L)
Portland United
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Thame United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Portchester · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hythe & Dibden · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamworthy Recreation · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · AFC Portchester 2-1 Portland United (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AFC Portchester win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.