· Analysis updated 17:37 UTC
AFC Portchester vs Whitstable Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for AFC Portchester and 1.37 for Whitstable Town, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives AFC Portchester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AFC Portchester win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Portchester home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Whitstable Town away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Portchester to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for AFC Portchester and 1.37 for Whitstable Town, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
AFC Portchester
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Whitstable Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kingstonian · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 0-2 (L)
Whitstable Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Egham Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Portchester · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Erith & Belvedere · 4-1 (W)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wealdstone · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · AFC Portchester 1-3 Whitstable Town (FA Trophy)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AFC Portchester win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.