· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Milton Keynes Irish Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for AFC Rushden & Diamonds and 1.45 for Milton Keynes Irish, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives AFC Rushden & Diamonds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Milton Keynes Irish away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Rushden & Diamonds to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for AFC Rushden & Diamonds and 1.45 for Milton Keynes Irish, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough Sports · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Desborough Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chasetown · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Banbury United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Milton Keynes Irish · 2-2 (D)
Milton Keynes Irish
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Winslow United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hadley · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:28.000Z · A vs London Lions · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:11.000Z · A vs Hitchin Town · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.