· Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
AFC Stoneham vs Basingstoke Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for AFC Stoneham and 1.26 for Basingstoke Town, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives AFC Stoneham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AFC Stoneham win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Stoneham home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Basingstoke Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Stoneham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for AFC Stoneham and 1.26 for Basingstoke Town, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
AFC Stoneham
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shaftesbury Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hungerford Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paulton Rovers · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleet Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salisbury · 1-7 (L)
Basingstoke Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Havant & Wville · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malvern Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AFC Stoneham win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.