AFC Sudbury vs Lowestoft Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for AFC Sudbury and 1.72 for Lowestoft Town, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Lowestoft Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lowestoft Town win

47.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AFC Sudbury home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lowestoft Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

AFC Sudbury win29%

Draw24%

Lowestoft Town win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–29.4%
0–18.4%
0–27.2%
2–17.1%

Recent form

AFC Sudbury

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ware · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lowestoft Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 3-3 (D)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 0-5 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 0-4 (L)

Lowestoft Town

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Sudbury · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brightlingsea Regent · 4-1 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grays Athletic · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Heybridge Swifts · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Felixstowe & Walton Utd · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 3-1 Lowestoft Town (FA Trophy)
2025-02-04T19:45:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 3-1 Lowestoft Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
2024-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 6-1 Lowestoft Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
2023-02-04T15:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 0-1 Lowestoft Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian North)
2022-11-19T15:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 2-0 Lowestoft Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian North)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lowestoft Town win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.