The Elite Travel Stadium · Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
AFC Sudbury vs Needham Market Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for AFC Sudbury and 1.98 for Needham Market, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Needham Market the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Needham Market win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Sudbury home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Needham Market away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
AFC Sudbury
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ware · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lowestoft Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 0-4 (L)
Needham Market
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leamington · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Anstey Nomads · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 1-3 Needham Market (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2026-02-03T19:45:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 2-4 Needham Market (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-04-01T12:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 0-3 Needham Market (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 1-0 Needham Market (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2020-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 2-3 Needham Market (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2013-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · AFC Sudbury 1-2 Needham Market (FA Cup)
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Needham Market | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Peterborough Sports | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 9 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Racing Club Warwick | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Hitchin Town | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Banbury United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Leiston | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Stratford Town | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 19 | Leamington | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -32 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Needham Market win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.