· Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
AFC Totton vs Gloucester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for AFC Totton and 1.54 for Gloucester City, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Gloucester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gloucester City win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AFC Totton home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gloucester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 25% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for AFC Totton and 1.54 for Gloucester City, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
AFC Totton
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloucester City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slough Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Weston-super-Mare · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hampton & Richmond · 4-1 (W)
Gloucester City
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Barrow · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barrow · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mulbarton Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Parkway · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gloucester City win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.