Prince Stadium · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Afghanistan U17 vs Bangladesh U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.25 expected goals for Afghanistan U17 and 1.50 for Bangladesh U17, a combined total of 5.75. That distribution gives Afghanistan U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Afghanistan U17 win
82.5% probability
Expected goals
4.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Afghanistan U17 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bangladesh U17 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Afghanistan U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 9% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.25 goals for Afghanistan U17 and 1.50 for Bangladesh U17, a combined 5.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.5%
- 3–16.1%
- 5–15.5%
- 4–24.9%
- 3–24.6%
Recent form
Afghanistan U17
- 2025-11-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Oman U17 · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-28T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nepal U17 · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Syria U17 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar U17 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-04-10T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Indonesia U17 · 0-2 (L)
Bangladesh U17
- 2025-11-30T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China PR U17 · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-28T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain U17 · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-11-26T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Sri Lanka U17 · 5-0 (W)
- 2025-11-24T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei U17 · 8-0 (W)
- 2025-11-22T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste U17 · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-10-27T08:00:00.000Z · Afghanistan U17 3-2 Bangladesh U17 (AFC U17 Asian Cup - Qualification)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Afghanistan U17 win, at 82.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.