Olympic Stadium · Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
Afghanistan U17 vs Macau U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Afghanistan U17 and 1.37 for Macau U17, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Afghanistan U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Afghanistan U17 win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Afghanistan U17 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Macau U17 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Afghanistan U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Afghanistan U17 and 1.37 for Macau U17, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–06.8%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Afghanistan U17
- 2025-11-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Oman U17 · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-28T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nepal U17 · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Syria U17 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar U17 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-04-10T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Indonesia U17 · 0-2 (L)
Macau U17
- 2025-11-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs N. Mariana Islands U17 · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam U17 · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaysia U17 · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-11-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-11-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong U17 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Afghanistan U17 win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.