Hisor Central Stadium · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Afghanistan vs India Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Afghanistan and 1.07 for India, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives India the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Afghanistan home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
India away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates India to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Afghanistan and 1.07 for India, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Afghanistan
- 2026-06-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pakistan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldives · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Syria · 1-5 (L)
India
- 2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zimbabwe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Jamaica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CAFA Nations Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uzbekistan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Oman | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Iran | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | India | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Tajikistan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Turkmenistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 7 | Afghanistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 8 | Kyrgyzstan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.