Afghanistan vs Pakistan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Afghanistan and 0.89 for Pakistan, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Afghanistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Afghanistan win

46.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.31 – 0.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Afghanistan home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pakistan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Afghanistan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Afghanistan and 0.89 for Pakistan, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Afghanistan win46%

Draw28%

Pakistan win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.5%
1–112.9%
0–011.1%
0–19.8%
2–09.5%

Recent form

Afghanistan

2026-06-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pakistan · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh U23 · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldives · 1-0 (W)
2026-03-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Syria · 1-5 (L)

Pakistan

2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Philippines · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 0-4 (L)
2026-06-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Afghanistan · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Afghanistan · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldives · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-10T16:00:00.000Z · Afghanistan 0-2 Pakistan (Friendlies)
2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · Afghanistan 0-2 Pakistan (Friendlies)
2025-10-14T15:00:00.000Z · Afghanistan 1-1 Pakistan (Asian Cup - Qualification)
2025-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · Afghanistan 0-0 Pakistan (Asian Cup - Qualification)

Asian Cup - Qualification table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tajikistan	6	4	2	0	11	14
2	Philippines	6	4	2	0	10	14
3	Maldives	6	1	0	5	-10	3
4	Timor-Leste	6	1	0	5	-11	3
1	Yemen	6	4	2	0	19	14
2	Lebanon	6	4	1	1	12	13
3	Bhutan	6	1	1	4	-12	4
4	Brunei	6	1	0	5	-19	3
1	Singapore	6	4	2	0	4	14
2	Hong Kong	6	2	2	2	0	8
3	Bangladesh	6	1	2	3	-2	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	-2	5
1	Thailand	6	5	0	1	11	15
2	Turkmenistan	6	4	0	2	4	12
3	Sri Lanka	6	3	0	3	-1	9
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	-14	0
1	Syria	6	6	0	0	19	18
2	Myanmar	6	4	0	2	-3	12
3	Afghanistan	6	0	2	4	-7	2
4	Pakistan	6	0	2	4	-9	2
1	Vietnam	6	6	0	0	15	18
2	Malaysia	6	3	0	3	0	9
3	Laos	6	2	0	4	-12	6
4	Nepal	6	1	0	5	-3	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Afghanistan win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.