· Analysis updated 12:11 UTC
Afturelding vs Breidablik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Afturelding and 2.48 for Breidablik, a combined total of 4.85. That distribution gives Breidablik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.1% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 2.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Afturelding home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Breidablik away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Breidablik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 39% / 19% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Afturelding and 2.48 for Breidablik, a combined 4.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.8%
- 1–25.7%
- 2–35.6%
- 2–15.5%
- 3–25.4%
Recent form
Afturelding
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Njardvik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vestri · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-25T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Grotta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ægir · 7-0 (W)
Breidablik
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fram Reykjavik · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Afturelding · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KA Akureyri · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.