Afturelding vs HK Kopavogur Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.97 expected goals for Afturelding and 2.33 for HK Kopavogur, a combined total of 5.30. That distribution gives Afturelding the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Afturelding win

52.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.97 – 2.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Afturelding home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HK Kopavogur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Afturelding to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 17% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.97 goals for Afturelding and 2.33 for HK Kopavogur, a combined 5.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Afturelding win52%

Draw17%

HK Kopavogur win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals77%

Both teams to score85%

Correct score

2–26.0%
3–25.9%
2–15.1%
3–15.1%
2–34.6%

Recent form

Afturelding

2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Njardvik · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vestri · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-25T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Grotta · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ægir · 7-0 (W)

HK Kopavogur

2026-09-13T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fylkir · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Fylkir · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fylkir · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grindavik · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Throttur Reykjavik · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Deild table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Afturelding	22	14	3	5	32	45
2	Throttur Reykjavik	22	13	4	5	25	43
3	Fylkir	22	13	1	8	13	40
4	HK Kopavogur	22	12	2	8	12	38
5	Njardvik	22	12	2	8	9	38
6	Leiknir R.	22	8	4	10	1	28
7	IR Reykjavik	22	8	4	10	-6	28
8	Grotta	22	8	3	11	-7	27
9	Vestri	22	8	3	11	-13	27
10	Völsungur	22	7	5	10	-12	26
11	Grindavik	22	5	10	7	-10	25
12	Ægir	22	2	3	17	-44	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Afturelding win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.