· Analysis updated 17:56 UTC
Agama vs Herentals Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Agama and 0.78 for Herentals, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives Herentals the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Agama home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Herentals away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 26% / 39% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Agama and 0.78 for Herentals, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.3%
- 0–119.6%
- 1–015.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–27.6%
Recent form
Agama
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Scotland Mabvuku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manica Diamonds · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Platinum · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ngezi Platinum · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Simba Bhora · 2-1 (W)
Herentals
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulawayo Chiefs · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Highlanders · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TelOne · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hunters · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardrock | 31 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 66 |
| 2 | Scotland Mabvuku | 30 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 34 | 61 |
| 3 | Ngezi Platinum | 31 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 55 |
| 4 | Dynamos | 31 | 12 | 15 | 4 | 17 | 51 |
| 5 | CAPS United | 31 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 51 |
| 6 | Herentals | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | MWOS | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Highlanders | 31 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 43 |
| 9 | Chicken Inn | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 42 |
| 10 | Platinum | 31 | 8 | 16 | 7 | -3 | 40 |
| 11 | Simba Bhora | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 39 |
| 12 | Hunters | 31 | 7 | 14 | 10 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 | Kariba | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | Bulawayo Chiefs | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -12 | 31 |
| 15 | Agama | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | -21 | 28 |
| 16 | Triangle United | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | TelOne | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -23 | 22 |
| 18 | Manica Diamonds | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -30 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.