· Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Agigea vs Progresul Fundulea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Agigea and 1.37 for Progresul Fundulea, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Agigea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Agigea home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Progresul Fundulea away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Agigea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Agigea and 1.37 for Progresul Fundulea, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Agigea
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Braniştea · 2-1 (W)
Progresul Fundulea
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Băneasa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Axiopolis · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Braniştea · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Tunari | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Berca | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Progresul Draganesti | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Voința Crevedia | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Plopeni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Pucioasa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Urban Titu | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Râmnicu Sărat | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.