· Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Agigea vs Sporting Lieşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Agigea and 3.00 for Sporting Lieşti, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Sporting Lieşti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Lieşti win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Agigea home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Lieşti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 21% / 16% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Agigea and 3.00 for Sporting Lieşti, a combined 4.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 78%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.8%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–45.1%
Recent form
Agigea
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Braniştea · 2-1 (W)
Sporting Lieşti
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 5-4 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | Progresul Fundulea | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Înainte Modelu | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Sporting Lieşti | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Agigea | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Unirea Braniştea | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Axiopolis | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Lieşti win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.