· Analysis updated 06:20 UTC
Agios Matthaios vs Aris Filiates Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Agios Matthaios and 1.70 for Aris Filiates, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Aris Filiates the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aris Filiates win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Agios Matthaios home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aris Filiates away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aris Filiates to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Agios Matthaios and 1.70 for Aris Filiates, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Agios Matthaios
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lefkimmi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilikratis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Filiates · 0-2 (L)
- 2022-04-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Kalirachis · 1-1 (D)
- 2022-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis Ampelokipon · 2-2 (D)
Aris Filiates
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Agios Matthaios · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilikratis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Stavros · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elassona · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Atromitos Patras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| 3 | Preveza | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Panachaiki FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Plataria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Tilikratis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Pallixouriakos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Aris Filiates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Lefkimmi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Panagriniakos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aris Filiates win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.