· Analysis updated 07:56 UTC
Ağrı 1970 vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ağrı 1970 and 0.91 for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Ağrı 1970 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ağrı 1970 win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ağrı 1970 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ağrı 1970 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Ağrı 1970 and 0.91 for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Ağrı 1970
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Silifke Belediyespor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Talasgücü Belediyespor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapadokyaspor · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kilis Belediyespor · 4-2 (W)
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kırklarelispor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Isparta 32 Spor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muş Sport Klübü · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs 1461 Trabzon FK · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 15 |
| 2 | Niğde Belediyesispor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Karaköprü Belediyespor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Kırşehir Belediyespor | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 12 |
| 7 | Bitlis Özgüzelderespor | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Ağrı 1970 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Adana Adaletgucu | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Silifke Belediyespor | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Osmaniyespor | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Karaman FK | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 15 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 3 |
| 16 | Diyarbekirspor | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 0 |
| 18 | Adanaspor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ağrı 1970 win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.