· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Agricola Borcea vs Progresul Fundulea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.85 expected goals for Agricola Borcea and 1.36 for Progresul Fundulea, a combined total of 4.21. That distribution gives Agricola Borcea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Agricola Borcea win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
2.85 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Agricola Borcea home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Progresul Fundulea away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Agricola Borcea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.85 goals for Agricola Borcea and 1.36 for Progresul Fundulea, a combined 4.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–06.0%
- 1–15.8%
- 3–05.7%
Recent form
Agricola Borcea
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Lieşti · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Băneasa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Axiopolis · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 4-2 (W)
Progresul Fundulea
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Băneasa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Axiopolis · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Braniştea · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | Înainte Modelu | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Progresul Fundulea | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Agigea | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Unirea Braniştea | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Axiopolis | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sporting Lieşti | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| 8 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -15 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Agricola Borcea win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.