· Analysis updated 22:59 UTC
Água Santa U20 vs Porto Football U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Água Santa U20 and 0.63 for Porto Football U20, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Água Santa U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Água Santa U20 win
74.7% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Água Santa U20 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Porto Football U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Água Santa U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 17% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Água Santa U20 and 0.63 for Porto Football U20, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.2%
- 1–012.4%
- 3–010.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.8%
Recent form
Água Santa U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanabi SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Capivariano U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarani U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sfera U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ituano U20 · 0-0 (D)
Porto Football U20
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Jaú U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ituano U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mauá U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Água Santa U20 win, at 74.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.