Estadio Unidad Deportiva Hermanos López Rayón · Analysis updated 00:34 UTC
Aguacateros CDU vs Dragones de Oaxaca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Aguacateros CDU and 1.40 for Dragones de Oaxaca, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Aguacateros CDU the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dragones de Oaxaca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aguacateros CDU to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Aguacateros CDU and 1.40 for Dragones de Oaxaca, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Aguacateros CDU
Dragones de Oaxaca
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cañoneros Marina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acambaro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Halcones Negros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Ciervos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Poza Rica · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T21:30:00.000Z · Aguacateros CDU 0-0 Dragones de Oaxaca (Liga Premier Serie B)
- 2025-11-15T22:00:00.000Z · Aguacateros CDU 3-0 Dragones de Oaxaca (Liga Premier Serie B)
Liga Premier Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Irapuato II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Celaya 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Gorilas de Juanacatlan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 5 | Huracanes Izcalli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul Lagunas | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Internacional Laguna | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Deportivo Ayense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Heroes de Zaci 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Hidalgo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.