· Analysis updated 17:17 UTC
Aguai U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Aguai U20 and 1.64 for São Paulo U20, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives São Paulo U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
São Paulo U20 win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
São Paulo U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates São Paulo U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 25% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Aguai U20 and 1.64 for São Paulo U20, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Aguai U20
São Paulo U20
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletico PR U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Santo Antonio U20 · 13-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is São Paulo U20 win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.