Águilas II vs Alcantarilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Águilas II and 0.78 for Alcantarilla, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Águilas II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

74.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Águilas II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alcantarilla away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Águilas II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Águilas II and 0.78 for Alcantarilla, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Águilas II win43%

Draw31%

Alcantarilla win26%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

1–016.8%
0–015.2%
1–113.1%
0–111.8%
2–09.3%

Recent form

Águilas II

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SFC Minerva · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unión Molinense · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bala Azul · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cotillas CD · 2-2 (D)

Alcantarilla

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Molinense · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bala Azul · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cotillas CD · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pulpileño · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	6	5	1	0	8	16
2	San Javier	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
5	Alcantarilla	6	2	3	1	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	2	2	2	6	8
7	Águilas II	6	1	5	0	2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	2	2	3	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Algar	6	1	0	5	-10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.