Águilas II vs UCAM Murcia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Águilas II and 1.70 for UCAM Murcia II, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives UCAM Murcia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Águilas II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UCAM Murcia II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UCAM Murcia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Águilas II and 1.70 for UCAM Murcia II, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Águilas II win36%

Draw23%

UCAM Murcia II win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–28.5%
2–18.0%
2–26.8%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Águilas II

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SFC Minerva · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unión Molinense · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bala Azul · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cotillas CD · 2-2 (D)

UCAM Murcia II

2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balsicas Atlético · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Santomera · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas II · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muleño · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazarrón FC · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	6	5	1	0	8	16
2	San Javier	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
5	Alcantarilla	6	2	3	1	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	2	2	2	6	8
7	Águilas II	6	1	5	0	2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	2	2	3	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Algar	6	1	0	5	-10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.