Changlimithang Stadium · Referee S. Zhakypbekov · Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Ahal vs Al Ansar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ahal and 1.85 for Al Ansar, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Al Ansar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ansar win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ahal home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ansar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ansar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Ahal and 1.85 for Al Ansar, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Ahal
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Altyn Asyr · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aşgabat · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Nebitci · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Şagadam · 1-2 (L)
Al Ansar
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hikma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Jwaaya FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahed · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wathba | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Manila Digger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Pusamania Borneo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Ansar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nejmeh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Regar-TadAZ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Fortis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Kasuka | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Hang Yuen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Paro | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Yangon United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Shan United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Ahal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Goa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Istiqlol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Tainan City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 19 | Central Stallions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Dordoi Bishkek | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Ezra | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Karketu Dili | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Ulaanbaatar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Bangladesh Police | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Muras United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Abu Muslim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Maziya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Al Arabi | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ansar win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.