· Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Ahlafors vs IF Karlstad II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Ahlafors and 1.10 for IF Karlstad II, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Ahlafors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ahlafors win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ahlafors home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IF Karlstad II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Ahlafors
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Motala · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Husqvarna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs FK · 0-1 (L)
IF Karlstad II
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vänersborgs IF · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Skövde · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stenungsund · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Skara · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 2-0 IF Karlstad II (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 4-1 IF Karlstad II (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2021-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 1-1 IF Karlstad II (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2021-06-05T13:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 3-1 IF Karlstad II (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
- 2020-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 3-6 IF Karlstad II (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
Division 2 - Norra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Skara | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 50 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 46 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Stenungsund | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 7 | Herrestads | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lidköping | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 33 |
| 9 | Vänersborgs FK | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kumla | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -17 | 29 |
| 11 | Motala | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Tord | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -17 | 22 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -21 | 16 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 26 | 2 | 3 | 21 | -50 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ahlafors win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.