Ahlafors vs Stenungsund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Ahlafors and 1.38 for Stenungsund, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Ahlafors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ahlafors win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ahlafors home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stenungsund away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ahlafors win53%

Draw22%

Stenungsund win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–19.3%
2–06.8%
1–06.8%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Ahlafors

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Motala · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-25T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skara · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Husqvarna · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs FK · 0-1 (L)

Stenungsund

2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tord · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vänersborgs FK · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Motala · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Herrestads · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-12T17:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 4-0 Stenungsund (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2024-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 1-1 Stenungsund (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2024-04-20T11:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 0-0 Stenungsund (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2022-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 3-2 Stenungsund (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2022-06-17T17:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 2-1 Stenungsund (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2021-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 2-1 Stenungsund (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2021-06-24T17:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 4-4 Stenungsund (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)
2020-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · Ahlafors 2-1 Stenungsund (Division 2 - Norra Götaland)

Division 2 - Norra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Husqvarna	26	21	3	2	39	66
2	Skara	26	18	5	3	30	59
3	IFK Skövde	26	15	5	6	17	50
4	Ahlafors	26	13	7	6	29	46
5	Grebbestad	26	12	4	10	6	40
6	Stenungsund	26	11	6	9	14	39
7	Herrestads	26	10	7	9	-4	37
8	Lidköping	26	9	6	11	-8	33
9	Vänersborgs FK	26	9	5	12	-9	32
10	Kumla	26	7	8	11	-17	29
11	Motala	26	6	8	12	-9	26
12	Tord	26	4	10	12	-17	22
13	IF Karlstad II	26	3	7	16	-21	16
14	Vänersborgs IF	26	2	3	21	-50	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ahlafors win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.