Yunist · Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Metal Kharkiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ahrobiznes Volochysk and 0.80 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Ahrobiznes Volochysk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ahrobiznes Volochysk win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ahrobiznes Volochysk home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metal Kharkiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ahrobiznes Volochysk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Ahrobiznes Volochysk and 0.80 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs UCSA · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Ternopil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Polissya II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 1-1 (D)
Metal Kharkiv
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Inhulets · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UCSA · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | Oleksandria | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | SK Poltava | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Yarud Mariupol' | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Prykarpattia | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Nyva Ternopil | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Chernihiv | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | UCSA | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ahrobiznes Volochysk win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.