· Analysis updated 03:28 UTC
Aigle Noir vs Al Hilal Omdurman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Aigle Noir and 1.34 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Al Hilal Omdurman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aigle Noir home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Hilal Omdurman away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hilal Omdurman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 29% / 27% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Aigle Noir and 1.34 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Aigle Noir
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rukinzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Royal Vision · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kayanza United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ngozi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vital'O · 2-3 (L)
Al Hilal Omdurman
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sidama Bunna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamus · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Aigle Noir 0-1 Al Hilal Omdurman (CAF Champions League)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · Aigle Noir 0-2 Al Hilal Omdurman (CAF Champions League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.